Sierra Vista, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS65 KTWC 240835
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific low pressure system will cross the region
through tonight resulting in on and off periods of rain.
Accumulating snow is likely through early Sunday in mountain
elevations above 7000 feet, with a Winter Weather Advisory in
effect. Well below normal temperatures are expected today and Sunday
before a warming trend arrives early next week with dry conditions
returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows the upper low
moving into the Baja Spur this morning with overcast skies and a few
showers over southeast Arizona. The upper low will translate
eastward across southern Sonora today being helped along by a
northern stream shortwave that will push through tonight into Sunday
morning. Expect a continuation of on and off shower activity today
with the greatest coverage for much of the day across Santa Cruz and
Cochise County which will be closer to a more favorable deformation
axis on the northern flank of the upper low. Meanwhile, as the
shortwave trough approaches from the west and northwest later this
afternoon and through tonight, increased lift and forcing will
result in a period of more widespread valley rain and mountain snow.
Just enough instability for the potential for a rumble or two of
thunder as well. Additional valley rain today into Sunday morning
will typically range from about 0.1"-0.5" with locally higher
amounts south and east of Tucson and in the mountains. Meanwhile,
additional mountain snow of 4 to 8 inches is expected above 7000
feet. Snow levels will hover around 8000 feet through most of today
then lower tonight to around 6000 feet by the time precipitation
ends early Sunday morning. Current winter weather headlines look
good for the mountains. The back edge of the precipitation will push
east out of our forecast area into NM by mid morning Sunday with dry
conditions thereafter area-wide Sunday. High temperatures this
weekend will be about 5 to 9 degrees below normal.

A benign weather pattern is expected into next week with broad
ridging building in through midweek which will bring a warming trend
in temperatures along with dry conditions. A period of easterly
winds is expected on Monday with some breezes in the typically prone
locales for east winds. Some uncertainty in the ensembles later in
the week with troughiness across the southwest US Thursday and
Friday. This doesn`t look like a significant system for us and the
inherited NBM for Thursday into Friday and its slight precipitation
chances are reasonable. Temperatures will end the work week near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
Mainly BKN-OVC conds at 4-8k ft AGL with pd of -SHRA/SHRA and ISOLD
TS thru the end of the valid pd for all terminals. MVFR conds are
psbl during periods of SHRA activity. Sfc winds light and under 10
kts thru 24/18Z, then becoming SWLY/WLY 7-14 kts thru the end of the
valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An area of low pressure will impact our region
today into early Sunday morning. Expect on and off valley rain and
mountain snow, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and mostly from the
west to southwest through Sunday. Easterly winds around 15 mph are
expected Monday, otherwise winds less than 15 mph thereafter. A
return to dry conditions Sunday into next week with temperatures
returning to near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for
  AZZ510-511-514.

 Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
  for AZZ512.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson